Alex Ovechkin, a player accustomed to pressure, is expected to be a key figure in Game 5 of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs Eastern Conference semifinals between the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday. With Carolina leading the series 3-1, the Capitals face elimination at home and will rely on Ovechkin to help extend their season.
The game is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. According to the latest odds, Carolina enters as the favorite (-170), while Washington is the underdog (+142). The total goals over/under is set at 5.5, and Carolina has a puck line of -1.5 (+154).
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, has a strong track record in the 2025 NHL playoffs. Heading into the second week of the conference semifinals, the model boasts a combined record of 79-55 on top-rated puck-line and over/under picks, yielding significant returns for bettors.
Based on the model`s analysis, here are the recommended player prop bets for Alex Ovechkin in the Capitals vs. Hurricanes Game 5:
- Under 3.5 shots on goal (-145)
- Over 0.5 points (-165)
- Anytime goal-scorer (+145)
Regarding shots on goal, despite facing Frederik Andersen, Ovechkin had a low shot count in Game 1 (only one shot). While his average improved slightly afterward, he has only exceeded 3.5 shots on goal once since that first game. The SportsLine model specifically forecasts 3.2 shots on goal for Ovechkin, supporting the `Under 3.5` bet.
For points, after being kept off the scoresheet for three consecutive games in the series, the Capitals captain registered a point in Game 4. He now has a total of four points (three goals, one assist) in home playoff games this season.
Historically, Ovechkin performs well in elimination games, ranking ninth in NHL history with 13 goals in 29 such contests. This playoff season alone, he has demonstrated his ability to score in crucial moments, including a game-opening goal and an overtime winner, suggesting he can find the net at any time.
Beyond these specific bets for Alex Ovechkin, the SportsLine model, with its proven 79-55 record on top puck-line and over/under picks in the playoffs so far, offers predictions for every game.
