Despite showcasing some different looks at times throughout their 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs journey, the Toronto Maple Leafs` postseason run concluded with a familiar outcome. They were ultimately booed off the Scotiabank Arena ice following a resounding 6-1 defeat at the hands of the Florida Panthers in Game 7.
Since their surprising and competitive series against the Washington Capitals in the 2017 NHL playoffs, the Maple Leafs have qualified for the postseason nine consecutive times. Over this span, Toronto has endured six Game 7 losses, advanced to the second round only twice, and accumulated a total of just 31 playoff wins.
To provide some perspective, the reigning champion Florida Panthers have amassed 37 playoff victories in just the last three seasons alone.
Given their persistent lack of playoff success and the looming contract situations for key players, the Maple Leafs roster is almost certainly facing significant alterations before the puck drops for the 2025-26 season opener. Mitch Marner and John Tavares, two integral members of the team`s `Core Four,` are slated to become free agents.
Additionally, forward Matthew Knies is set to become a restricted free agent. The 22-year-old winger had a productive past season, registering 29 goals and 29 assists, performance that positions him for a substantial salary increase.
Is it time for a change?
The argument for allowing Tavares and Marner to depart in free agency is straightforward. Toronto still possesses two elite stars in their prime, Auston Matthews and William Nylander, who anchor the top of the lineup. Matthew Knies is also emerging as a potential top-tier player, assuming he is re-signed by the team this summer.
In theory, the financial flexibility gained by not re-signing Tavares and Marner could be allocated to enhance the supporting cast around Matthews, Nylander, and Knies. Throughout the recent playoffs, the `Core Four` plus Knies were responsible for the vast majority of Toronto`s offense, while contributions from the rest of the roster were minimal.
| Core Four + Knies | Rest of team | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 21 | 15 |
| Assists | 32 | 31 |
| Points | 53 | 46 |
After repeatedly relying on the same core group and consistently achieving the same disappointing results, the Maple Leafs organization may understandably feel compelled to dismantle the core and implement widespread roster changes. The passionate fanbase in Toronto, evident from the scenes in Maple Leaf Square and inside the arena, would likely support such a drastic shift.
However, what is the case for maintaining the current course and granting this group at least a couple more opportunities to succeed? This option might be more appealing than it initially seems.
Why they might stay the course
Firstly, the players comprising the `Core Four,` along with Knies, are all genuinely skilled individuals. Marner is a high-impact player capable of 100-point seasons who contributes effectively across all three zones when playing at his best. The 34-year-old Tavares is coming off a solid season where he scored 38 goals and totaled 74 points.
Players of this caliber are difficult to acquire, and replacing the production and presence of these two would be challenging for the Maple Leafs, especially through free agency. The upcoming 2025 unrestricted free agent class is generally considered weak, with Marner and Tavares being among the most prominent names.
Other notable players potentially hitting the market next summer include Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Brock Boeser. While these are capable players with varying levels of postseason experience, they are unlikely to fully fill the voids left by Tavares and Marner, particularly given the significant salaries they are expected to command.
This scenario suggests that Toronto`s general manager, Brad Treliving, would need to explore creative solutions via the trade market or by targeting restricted free agents. Unfortunately for him, significant obstacles exist in those avenues as well.
The Maple Leafs currently do not hold a first-round draft pick in any of the next three drafts and possess only two second-round selections during that period. This limits Toronto`s ability to execute a major trade unless it involves moving a current roster player. Furthermore, they likely lack the necessary draft compensation to make a substantial offer sheet bid for a high-profile restricted free agent.
Considering these constraints, it is quite possible that the team could experience a decline in performance in the 2025-26 season if both Marner and Tavares were to depart.
The desire for change among the Toronto fanbase is natural – and arguably rational. The NHL operates based on results, and this core group has consistently failed to deliver those results, particularly in the playoffs. Yet, one must question how much better the team would truly be without key contributors like Marner (No. 16) and Tavares (No. 91) in the lineup. The reality might be less positive than many fans assume.
It might necessitate Tavares accepting a reduced salary and potentially require Marner to sign for less than he could command on the open market, but the Maple Leafs` most feasible short-term strategy might very well be to retain this core group and give them a few more attempts to finally overcome their playoff hurdles.
