The Central Division rivalry between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche continues into the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Game 1 will be hosted by the Stars, marking a rematch from the previous year`s second round where Dallas prevailed in six games. In the 2025 regular season, the Stars finished ahead of the Avalanche by four points, despite ending with a four-game losing streak. Colorado won two out of three regular-season games against Dallas but has lost three of their last five overall. A key absence for the Stars in Game 1 will be forward Jason Robertson, sidelined with a lower body injury.
The puck drops at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. Oddsmakers have Colorado as the favorite with a -134 money line, while Dallas is the underdog at +112. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5. Leading statistical models provide insights to help inform your betting choices for this game.
Statistical models, which accurately predicted outcomes during the 2024-25 NHL season, suggest considering certain bets. These models have shown strong performance, particularly in puck-line and over/under predictions, offering a potentially profitable approach for informed bettors.
Top Bets for Avalanche vs. Stars Game 1:
Stars to win (+118 Money Line)
Despite Colorado being favored due to Robertson`s injury, models indicate value in betting on the home underdog, Dallas. The Stars had a strong 28-13 home record this season. A significant factor favoring Dallas is goaltending experience. Colorado will start rookie goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, while Dallas` Jake Oettinger boasts 47 playoff appearances and a solid 2.46 goals against average in the postseason. Models predict Dallas has a 53% chance of winning this game. Consider exploring betting options offering odds around +118 for Dallas to win.
Nathan MacKinnon to Score a Goal (+150)
Center Nathan MacKinnon concluded the regular season with 32 goals, including eight against Central Division teams. Although he didn`t score against Dallas in the regular season, he scored a crucial game-tying goal against them in last year`s playoffs. Models estimate MacKinnon has nearly a 50% chance to score in this game, making this prop bet potentially valuable.
Over 5.5 Goals (-125)
All three regular-season matchups between these teams exceeded 5.5 goals, including a 4-3 overtime win for Colorado in their last meeting on March 16th. Colorado has also scored four or more goals in their recent games. Models project a combined total of 6.3 goals for this game, suggesting the over is likely, occurring nearly 60% of the time. Consider the over 5.5 goals at odds around -125.
