The Oklahoma City Thunder are just one victory away from reaching the Western Conference Finals, a feat they haven`t accomplished since 2016. They aim to secure that win on the road against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET, currently holding a 3-2 series advantage. Oklahoma City enters the game having won their last two matchups, most recently defeating Denver 112-105 on Tuesday, fueled by a dominant fourth quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was key in that win with 31 points, and his points total for Thursday`s NBA player props is set at 30.5. For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic delivered a 44-point performance on Tuesday; his odds for recording a triple-double stand at +210. Both superstar players are expected to be popular inclusions in same-game betting combinations.
Analysis derived from a projection model that simulates every NBA game thousands of times indicates favorable value in several player prop bets for tonight`s contest. The following selections are based on this data and supporting evidence, though odds are subject to change.
Michael Porter Jr. Prop Bet
Over 0.5 assists (-150)
Despite recording zero assists in five of his last seven appearances, the model projects Michael Porter Jr. for 1.2 assists on Thursday, suggesting an 80% probability of exceeding the 0.5 line. This is a higher likelihood than implied by the -150 odds. Porter had two assists in the recent Tuesday game and averaged 2.1 assists per game during the regular season. Analysts view this as a potential “buy-low” opportunity, anticipating increased playing time in a crucial game combined with his season-long performance. He averaged 2.0 assists in regular season home games and recorded at least one assist in nearly 80% of those contests. One analysis suggests that if Porter struggles with his shot, he might prioritize passing more often.
Isaiah Hartenstein Prop Bet
Under 9.5 rebounds (-110)
Isaiah Hartenstein has gone under this rebound total in three out of five games in the current series, including grabbing only seven boards on Tuesday. He faces the challenging task of guarding Nikola Jokic, which often leads to foul trouble and restricts his minutes (playing under 30 minutes twice and never exceeding 33 in this series). With the Nuggets facing elimination, Jokic is expected to maintain an aggressive offensive approach. Hartenstein also averaged nine rebounds against Denver in their two regular-season matchups, highlighting the difficulty of dominating the glass against Jokic. He has finished under his total rebounds number in over half of his recent games against teams with winning records, averaging 9.2 rebounds in those contests. The model projects Hartenstein for 7.9 rebounds on Thursday.
Alex Caruso Prop Bet
Over 2.5 assists (+145)
Although Alex Caruso has recorded exactly two assists in his last three games, the model identifies value in betting on him to exceed 2.5 assists tonight, especially given the plus odds (+145). The projection for Game 6, where the Thunder are attempting to advance, is 2.5 assists. In the previous series against the Grizzlies, Caruso averaged 3.8 assists per game, surpassing this total in all four contests. He has also gone over 2.5 assists in three of his last five road games, averaging 4.0 assists over that span. The Nuggets` defense allowed the 27th most assists per game during the regular season, making this a potentially strong play at favorable odds.
