The Dallas Stars have a chance to finish their first-round series against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday. They currently hold a 3-2 lead after a dominant 6-2 victory in Game 5 against the veteran Avs team, who won the Stanley Cup in 2022. To clinch the series in Game 6, Dallas must win on the road in Colorado. If the Avalanche win, the series will return to Dallas for a deciding Game 7.
According to consensus odds, the Avalanche are favored at home with a money line of -193 (bet $193 to win $100), while the Stars are +160 road underdogs (bet $100 to win $160). The total goals over/under is set at 6, with the Over being favored at -120.
Colorado boasts a roster of stars, led by Nathan MacKinnon, who was second in NHL points and first in assists during the regular season. He has accumulated seven points through the first five games of this series against Dallas, including three in Game 1 (a 5-1 Avs win). His total points prop for Game 6 is set at 1.5. The SportsLine Projection Model has identified one side of this prop as a highly-rated 5-star play, making it a crucial element of today`s featured NHL same-game parlay for the Stars-Avalanche matchup.
The SportsLine Projection Model rigorously simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. The model provides top-rated prop picks for various players, often assigned star ratings up to five stars. These picks can be valuable for building successful parlays and same-game parlays.
Here are the three top-rated player prop picks from the SportsLine model for Thursday`s Game 6 between the Stars and Avalanche, along with the potential payout if combined into a same-game parlay:
Stars-Avalanche Same-Game Parlay (+338)
- Nathan MacKinnon Under 1.5 total points (-146): Rated 5 stars.
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-146): Rated 5 stars.
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-184): Rated 5 stars.
All three of the model`s highest-rated prop plays for Game 6 involve Colorado players and receive a 5-star rating. Starting with MacKinnon, despite his seven points in five games (1.4 ppg average), the model projects him to score just 0.4 points in Game 6. He has gone Under this prop in his last five home games, averaging only 0.8 points per contest in those matchups. Brock Nelson, acquired mid-season from the Islanders, has two assists in the series. The model strongly favors him going Over his 1.5 shots on goal prop, projecting 2.5 shots. Nelson has averaged 2.2 shots on goal this series and a higher 3.4 shots on goal over his last five home games, clearing the prop line in all of them. Martin Necas, another trade deadline addition, is also projected to exceed 1.5 shots on goal. The model predicts Necas will record 2.9 shots. He has surpassed this prop line in eight of his last 15 games against teams with winning records, averaging 2.7 shots on goal in those contests.
