Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Western Conference Final is scheduled for Wednesday, with the Dallas Stars hosting the Edmonton Oilers. Connor McDavid led the visiting Oilers to victory in their second-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights, finishing it off with a 1-0 overtime win in Game 5 last Wednesday. The Stars clinched their spot by defeating the Winnipeg Jets 2-1 in overtime in Game 6 last Saturday. Puck drop is set for 8 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
According to the latest odds, Dallas enters Game 1 as the favorite on the money line at -125 (bet $125 to win $100), while Edmonton is the underdog at +105 (bet $100 to win $105). The total goals over/under is set at 6.5, and the Stars are also favored on the puck line at -1.5 (+190).
A projection model that simulates every NHL game 10,000 times has weighed in on the matchup. This model has a strong track record entering the conference finals of the 2025 NHL playoffs, with a combined 80-56 record on top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting picks, providing significant returns for bettors.
Model`s Best Bets for Stars vs. Oilers Game 1:
- Stars -1.5 on the puck line (+190)
- Under 6.5 total goals (-105)
The model projects the Stars to cover the puck line in over 50% of simulations. This pick is supported by Dallas` recent performance at home, where they have won six consecutive games and covered the puck line in their last three outings at the American Airlines Center, winning two of those by two or more goals.
The Under has been a frequent outcome for both teams recently, hitting in the last two games for the Oilers and the last three for the Stars. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger`s play contributed to the Under cashing in five out of six starts against Winnipeg in the previous round, while Edmonton`s starting netminder Stuart Skinner achieved shutouts in his recent appearances against Vegas.
