The Dallas Stars are looking to strengthen their position in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs conference semifinals as they host the Winnipeg Jets for Game 4 on Tuesday. Dallas currently holds a 2-1 series advantage, following a 5-2 victory on Sunday where Mikko Rantanen was notable on the scoresheet. The game will be held at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
In the latest odds for the matchup, Dallas is favored on the moneyline at -150, meaning a $150 bet would win $100. Winnipeg is the underdog at +125, with a $100 bet potentially returning $125. The total number of goals expected is set at an over/under of 5.5. Dallas is also given a puck line of -1.5 with odds of +173. Before placing any wagers on the Jets vs. Stars game, many consult the NHL predictions provided by the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. As the 2025 NHL playoffs conference semifinals entered their second week, the model had a strong combined performance of 79-55 on its top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting selections, demonstrating profitability for those following its advice.
Best Bets for Stars vs. Jets Game 4:
Over 5.5 goals (-125): The model highlights the Over as a strong pick. This aligns with the trend seen in the playoffs, where the Over has been reached in four out of Dallas` five home games. Similarly, it has hit in all four of Winnipeg`s road playoff contests. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has struggled on the road in the postseason, allowing five or more goals in each of those four games. The SportsLine model projects the Over to occur in significantly more than half of its simulations for Game 4.
Mikko Rantanen anytime goal-scorer (+140): Mikko Rantanen is identified as a player likely to score. The Finnish forward has been productive throughout the playoffs, tallying 18 points (nine goals, nine assists) in 10 games, including recent multi-goal performances. Notably, he has scored at least once in each of his last three playoff games played on home ice, including finding the net in Game 3.
Over 0.5 goals scored in first 10 minutes (-145): An early goal is also anticipated by the model. Games 2 and 3 of this series both featured two goals scored within the initial 10 minutes of play, and another high-scoring start is projected. Three of Dallas` five home playoff games have seen a goal scored within the first 10 minutes. Furthermore, Winnipeg`s Hellebuyck has conceded a goal in the first 10 minutes in six of his ten playoff starts.
