The Atlanta Hawks will host the Miami Heat on Friday evening in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner earns the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and will face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs.
The Hawks concluded the regular season with a 40-42 record, while the Heat were 37-45. In their regular season series, Atlanta and Miami split the four games, with each team winning at home.
The Hawks are entering this game as 1-point favorites, and the over/under for total points is set at 219.5.
According to an advanced computer model, it has historically provided profitable NBA predictions. This model has simulated the Heat vs. Hawks game multiple times to generate its prediction.
Why the Heat Could Win
Miami demonstrated strong performance in their recent game, especially in the first half where they scored a season-high 71 points against Chicago. Tyler Herro`s 38-point game highlights Miami`s offensive capability. The Heat are experienced in the Play-In Tournament, having reached the postseason through it in the last two years. Coach Erik Spoelstra has a reputation for preparing his team well for critical postseason games. Their defense also played well recently, holding the Bulls to under 40% shooting.
Why the Hawks Could Win
The Hawks are aiming to secure a postseason spot for the fourth time in five years, marking their fourth consecutive Play-In Tournament appearance. Despite a recent loss to Orlando, who have a top-ranked defense, Atlanta`s offense is generally strong, ranking fifth in the league in scoring. They have performed well against Miami`s defense in past matchups, scoring over 109 points in most of their regular season games. Trae Young, a high-scoring and assist-leading player, is crucial for the Hawks` offense. Atlanta also won both home games against Miami during the regular season with decisive margins.
Hawks vs. Heat Prediction
Predictions from a model suggest a total score under 219 points for the game. The model also indicates a strong probability for one side of the spread, approaching 60% accuracy.
