Many believe Stephen Curry’s record for career 3-pointers is secure for the foreseeable future, contrary to Draymond Green’s suggestion it might be broken shortly after Curry retires. Green speculated that players like Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell, who aggressively shoot from beyond the arc early in their careers, would eventually surpass Curry. He reasoned that the game’s evolution, largely influenced by Curry and Klay Thompson, now emphasizes the three-point shot more than ever.
However, simply attempting more three-pointers doesn’t guarantee record-breaking success. Despite the increased volume of three-point attempts across the league, statistical analysis suggests that overtaking Curry’s record is an immense challenge, perhaps even an impossible one.
As of now, Curry has made over 4,000 three-pointers. Projecting forward, if he continues playing until age 40 and maintains a pace of around 250 three-pointers per season, he could reach a staggering 5,000 career three-pointers. This benchmark is exceptionally high.
For any player to realistically contend with this record, they would need to either establish an unprecedented rate of three-point makes early in their career or sustain a professional career of extraordinary length.
Considering Green’s examples, Trae Young’s early career three-point attempts only marginally exceed Curry’s, and Curry’s superior shooting accuracy has resulted in more made three-pointers. Similarly, Donovan Mitchell’s three-point volume in his initial seasons is comparable to Curry’s, with Curry’s higher percentage again proving decisive.
This trend is consistent across potential challengers. The perceived advantage in early-career three-point volume over Curry is less significant than often assumed, and crucially, volume alone is insufficient; shooting efficiency is paramount. LaMelo Ball, despite being known for high-volume shooting, has accumulated fewer three-pointers than Curry in their respective first five seasons due to a lower shooting percentage. Jalen Green has a slight lead in three-pointers through his first four years, but this is insufficient to seriously challenge Curry’s record when considering the longevity and efficiency required.
While an exceptionally long 25-year career could theoretically threaten any record, such career lengths are rare. Among active players, Jayson Tatum, Luka Dončić, and Anthony Edwards are sometimes mentioned as having a potential, albeit slim, chance.
Jayson Tatum is deemed the least likely of the three, projected to have fewer three-pointers than Curry in their first seven seasons. To reach 5,000, Tatum would need to average 250 three-pointers for an additional 14 seasons—a highly improbable scenario.
Luka Dončić also lags behind Curry in three-pointers made through their first seven seasons and has a lower career three-point percentage. Betting on Dončić to sustain peak performance for 25 healthy seasons is equally unrealistic.
Anthony Edwards emerges as the most credible, albeit still distant, challenger. He is on track to surpass Curry’s three-point total through their first five seasons. Edwards combines a high volume of attempts with a commendable 40% shooting accuracy this season and, at a young age, has longevity on his side. Should he maintain this trajectory and play until 40, reaching 5,000 three-pointers becomes a theoretical possibility.
However, such a projection assumes perfect conditions: no major injuries, and sustained 40% shooting accuracy at high volume—a feat historically unachieved by anyone except Curry. So, while Edwards has a remote chance in about two decades, it remains a long shot.
Draymond Green’s assertion that Curry’s record will fall soon after his retirement is not grounded in reality. Curry’s three-point record is poised to endure for a very long time, possibly indefinitely. Approaching 5,000 career three-pointers, as Curry is likely to do, represents an extraordinary achievement that demands not only elite shooting ability and high volume but also decades of uninterrupted, healthy play. To truly challenge it, a player would need to replicate Curry’s unique combination of skills and longevity—a prospect that seems highly improbable.
