The Ottawa Senators are facing elimination as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto currently holds a commanding 3-0 lead in the series, having won Game 1 convincingly (6-2) and securing narrow 3-2 victories in overtime in Games 2 and 3. Historically, only four teams in NHL history have ever managed to come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win; the most recent instance was the Los Angeles Kings in 2014. For the Senators to keep their season alive and potentially become the fifth team to achieve this rare feat, they absolutely must win today.
According to betting odds, the Senators are slight favorites playing at home, listed at -113 on the moneyline. The Maple Leafs are close behind at -107. The line for the total number of goals scored in the game (over/under) is set at 5.5.
Both teams feature prominent offensive players in this series. For Toronto, the top stars include Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner had an outstanding 2024-25 season, reaching the 100-point milestone for the first time in his career. Matthews, despite missing 15 games, had his lowest point total since the shortened 2020-21 season. These two offensive talents are central figures in the recommended same-game parlay for Saturday`s game, which was formulated using the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times and provides top-rated prop picks under the `Prop Picks` section. The model assigns star ratings (up to five stars) to various player prop bets, which can be useful for building winning parlays on platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, or Sleeper Fantasy, as well as same-game parlays on other betting sites.
Maple Leafs-Senators Recommended Same-Game Parlay (+348)
- Mitch Marner Under 1.5 total points (-250): Rated 5 stars by the model.
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 total points (-240): Rated 4.5 stars by the model.
- Tim Stutzle Under 0.5 total points (+126): Rated 4 stars by the model.
The model shows high confidence that both Marner and Matthews will finish Saturday`s game with less than 1.5 points, rating these as the top prop bets for this matchup. Marner currently has six points in the series, and Matthews has five. However, the model predicts Marner will record just 0.3 points and Matthews 0.5 points in Game 4. Historically, both Marner and Matthews have gone under their total points prop in four out of their last five games against teams with middle-tier defenses. Additionally, Tim Stutzle, who led the Senators in points this year, is also projected by the model to finish under his points line, set at 0.5. The 23-year-old winger has only recorded one point so far in this series, and the model projects him at 0.3 points for Saturday. He has finished under his points prop in four of his last five games when the Senators were the favored team.
