Let`s be honest, a small part of you probably wonders if the NBA Draft lottery is rigged, right? Don`t feel silly, you`re not alone. Many people, to some extent, believe this to be true. One of those people is actually central to a particular conspiracy theory: LeBron James, the number one pick in the 2003 NBA Draft.
“During the lottery drawing, when Cleveland got the top pick?” James mentioned in a recent interview with Pat McAfee, laughing as he said it. “I just find it hard to believe – what a coincidence. Let`s keep LeBron in his home state. Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, Derrick Rose to the Bulls, I get the picture.” James might have been joking, but considering how many people are drawn to these theories, it`s worth taking a closer, critical look.
Mention any significant lottery, and you`ll find similar conspiracy theories. Victor Wembanyama ended up with the Spurs because Tony Parker, the most celebrated French player in NBA history, played for them. Anthony Davis went to the Pelicans because the league had recently owned the team and made the top pick a condition of the sale to inflate its value. The Cavaliers landed three number one picks in four years, supposedly out of sympathy after James left as a free agent in 2010. The list goes on and on. This is arguably the most persistent conspiracy theory in professional sports.
However, it`s also one of the easiest to disprove with a simple thought experiment. Let`s use James` 2003 NBA Draft as our example. If you examine all the top picks, you can find a conspiracy justification for almost every one.
- The number one pick went to Cleveland, James` hometown team. Simple enough, and James himself seems to find it suspicious.
- The second pick belonged to Detroit, but originally came from Memphis with top-1 protection. If the Grizzlies had won that lottery, it would have been easy to argue that the league desperately needed Memphis to succeed as a market after relocating the Grizzlies from Vancouver just two years prior. The fact that Jerry West, considered the greatest general manager in NBA history, was running the Grizzlies at the time also gave the league reassurance that James` career would be in capable hands.
- The third pick was held by Denver. No obvious conspiracy here.
- The fourth pick was held by Toronto. At this point, the Grizzlies had recently moved, and the Vince Carter era in Toronto was ending poorly. If the Raptors had won the lottery, a straightforward conspiracy could be imagined: the NBA wanted to save basketball in Canada.
- The fifth pick was held by Miami. Easy conspiracy: James would have been going to a glamorous market led by Pat Riley, who, like West, would have been trusted by the league office to effectively guide the early stages of LeBron`s career.
- The sixth pick was held by the Clippers. Another simple conspiracy, as it would have placed James in the NBA`s second-largest market. Consider who played for the other Los Angeles team then. The Lakers were still in the midst of the Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O`Neal era. Imagine the media frenzy if James and Bryant shared a city. Think about the endless `next Michael Jordan` debates between them. It would have been a publicity goldmine.
- The seventh pick was held by Chicago… Jordan`s actual team. The narratives write themselves. Jordan`s successor would wear the same jersey he did.
- The eighth pick was held by Milwaukee. Like Denver, no clear conspiracy here.
- The ninth pick was held by New York. No need to even explain the conspiracy here. James already did it for us. If you believe the NBA rigged the lottery to send Patrick Ewing to New York, you might also believe they`d do it for James.
Do you see the point? Sure, you could convince yourself that the NBA wanted to keep James in Ohio… but you could also create half a dozen other conspiracy theories depending on how the 2003 lottery played out. These theories aren`t based on real evidence. They start with an outcome and work backward, asking you to believe them simply because a plausible motive for that outcome exists. However, when a motive can be found for any outcome, a conspiracy becomes possible for every outcome. This makes the idea of a conspiracy quite easy to dismiss when no further evidence is presented.
Let`s consider those motives for a moment. The NBA supposedly kept James and Rose in their home states. Why hasn`t it done this for other top prospects? Blake Griffin grew up in Oklahoma City and was drafted in 2009, the first draft where the Thunder, not the Sonics, technically participated. Shouldn`t the NBA have sent him “home” using the same logic?
What about market size? If the NBA wanted Ewing in New York, why were they okay with Tim Duncan going to San Antonio or Zion Williamson to New Orleans? If big-market teams are always favored, why did the struggling Celtics fall to the fifth pick in 2007, considered one of the strongest drafts in NBA history? Or miss out on Duncan in 1997? Why are the Knicks mathematically one of the unluckiest teams in lottery history? How have the Cavaliers and Magic each won four lotteries when the Lakers have never won one?
The entire conspiracy concept crumbles under even slight scrutiny. The lottery drawing is observed by representatives from every participating team, as well as the media. Rigging even a single lottery would require keeping the secret among many people with different goals and personal interests in the results. If this were a regular occurrence, there would be stronger evidence than just an entertaining story and the skepticism of a player who was part of it. The truth is, you could invent a lottery conspiracy almost every year, and that alone should suggest that these conspiracies are probably false. Remember this in six weeks when the chance to draft Cooper Flagg is awarded.
