It`s a known fact in the NBA that March can bring unexpected performances. Jalen Green outscored Nikola Jokić in points per game in March 2024. Mikal Bridges nearly averaged 29 points per game in March 2023 with impressive shooting percentages. Shake Milton even earned a starting spot for Philadelphia in March 2020. These examples highlight the unpredictable nature of basketball in March.
There are logical reasons for these March anomalies. Schedules become uneven, with struggling teams often prioritizing draft picks and top teams resting players. This creates opportunities for some players to shine against easier opponents. Teams out of playoff contention might also experiment with their lineups, giving chances to players who wouldn`t normally have them. Injuries can also lead to unexpected shifts in team dynamics.
Sometimes, however, players simply improve. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a prime example. Early in his 2015-16 season, he averaged only 3.2 assists. But as the season progressed, his coach Jason Kidd recognized his growth and gradually gave him more playmaking responsibilities. In March, Antetokounmpo`s scoring slightly increased, but more importantly, his assists jumped to 7.2 per game. This empowerment as a ball-handler paved the way for him to become the Most Improved Player in 2017 and MVP in 2019. Occasionally, these March breakouts are genuine signs of future potential.
We are currently nearing the end of the NBA`s version of “March Madness.” This March has seen numerous surprising performances. Let`s examine some of these and try to differentiate between temporary March flukes and genuine breakthroughs.
1. & 2. Josh Giddey and Coby White, Bulls
Coby White is averaging an impressive 29.1 points per game in March, surpassing stars like Antetokounmpo, Tatum, Durant, Edwards, and Cunningham. Josh Giddey, with a solid 20.9 points per game, is also close to averaging a triple-double with 9.8 rebounds and 8.9 assists. Both players are experiencing their best months statistically, contributing to the Bulls` recent success.
The Bulls have a 9-3 record in their last 12 games. Their offensive improvement this month is notable even considering their fast-paced style of play. While they are third in the NBA in pace, Cleaning the Glass data shows they are also seventh in half-court points per play in March. This indicates their offensive success is not just due to playing quickly but also executing effectively in half-court situations.
The improved play of Giddey and White is central to this. Both are playing with more aggression in March. Through February, they combined for only 5.7 free-throw attempts per game. Now, they are both exceeding that number individually. White, in particular, has become a force driving to the basket, taking 9.8 shots in the paint per game in March, more than LeBron James` season average. His 6 restricted area shots per game are also higher than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s season average.
Giddey is also attacking the basket more and, crucially, improving his three-point shooting. He`s hitting 41.7% of his catch-and-shoot threes in March on a decent volume. While his catch-and-shoot shooting has been consistent all season, improving this aspect is critical for his postseason viability. Oklahoma City traded him partly because defenses didn`t guard him effectively off-ball. Giddey rarely attempts pull-up threes, a typical sign of a star player, but improving as a catch-and-shoot threat is important for his role as a supporting player. Sustained high-volume shooting will be necessary for defenses to consistently guard him, but this is a promising start.
However, the Bulls` recent schedule has been against weaker defenses. In March, they`ve only faced three top-10 defenses, and those teams were missing key defensive players. A single month against mostly weak defenses might not be a representative sample to judge their true improvement.
Despite the schedule caveats, the rise of Giddey and White makes sense. The idea behind acquiring Giddey was that he would thrive with more offensive opportunities. Coby White is also primarily an on-ball player. Zach LaVine`s presence previously limited both players` usage. LaVine`s trade in February allowed both Giddey and White to handle the ball more, leading to their improved performance. While it`s unlikely they would have the same level of ball-handling opportunity on a championship-contending team, both Giddey and White are capitalizing on LaVine`s absence to demonstrate their capabilities.
3. Quentin Grimes, 76ers
The 76ers recently played two games against teams prioritizing draft position, the Pelicans and Raptors. Grimes missed both games, designated for “rest.” Before joining Philadelphia, he averaged 22.8 minutes per game. Bench players typically don`t require rest days, which is usually reserved for star players. Grimes, however, has been playing like a star in March.
Before Philadelphia, Grimes was primarily a role player. He became a starter with the Knicks in the 2022-23 season, but nearly 90% of his field goals were assisted. He was mainly positioned for catch-and-shoot three-pointers. However, on the 76ers, who are currently without stars and potentially tanking, over half of his shots have been unassisted. He is creating his own shots effectively. While some of his current statistics might be unsustainable, like his near 69% shooting in the restricted area (MVP-level for a guard), he is demonstrating a new dimension to his game.
The suggestion that he will revert to being just a role player once the 76ers are healthy, as Georges Niang reportedly told him, seems unlikely now. He has more 30-point games in Philadelphia than Paul George. The reality lies somewhere in between. He won`t just be a spot-up shooter anymore, but he also won`t consistently average 26.6 points per game when Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are playing.
A balanced approach is likely ideal. Grimes can be valuable as a player who can hit open threes created by star teammates but also attack closeouts and exploit mismatches. Furthermore, reducing Embiid`s workload might be beneficial. Philadelphia could use Grimes`s emergence as a reason to manage Embiid`s minutes and keep him fresh for the playoffs. Even if Grimes doesn`t score 25 every night, any competent coach will recognize his performance over the past month and seek to incorporate more on-ball opportunities for him next season. Ignoring this would be wasteful. While not a superstar as his “rest” designation might imply, he is a more versatile offensive player than he was given credit for in previous situations.
4. Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers
For Deni Avdija, this late-season surge isn`t unprecedented. Last February, he averaged approximately 23 points, nine rebounds, and three assists over a seven-game stretch. He then suffered an injury and didn`t perform the same for the remainder of the season. After being traded to Portland, he spent much of this season adjusting to his new environment. Now, he`s experiencing another surge, averaging around 23 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists in March.
A key difference this time, suggesting this surge might be temporary, is his shooting. Avdija was a poor three-point shooter for the first three years of his career. He improved to decent last season, and that level mostly continued this season. However, in his recent nine games, he`s shooting 51.6% from three on over seven attempts per game. This level of shooting is likely unsustainable; otherwise, he would be among the NBA`s elite shooters.
This stretch isn`t entirely meaningless. It`s encouraging that Avdija can perform well even with less-than-ideal shooting near the basket. His previous surge in Washington suggests he`s been on the verge of a breakout. However, his breakout is more likely to be as a well-rounded player rather than a 25-point scorer. He will probably settle into a scoring range of 18 to 20 points per game. He is a solid shooter and a better finisher than he has shown recently. Combining these scoring skills with his excellent rebounding for his position, strong defense, and good playmaking instincts makes him a unique wing player. He`s a versatile, “do-it-all” player, currently on a Portland team still in a rebuilding phase.
This type of player is highly valuable in the NBA, especially given the league`s emphasis on wings and versatility. His value is further enhanced by his team-friendly four-year, $55 million extension signed with Washington before the trade. However, his recent box scores might overstate his potential as a star scorer.
5. Austin Reaves, Lakers
The conversation around Austin Reaves` potential happens annually. As a rookie, it was clear the Lakers played better when he was on the court. He was initially seen as a potential bench contributor. A year later, during the Russell Westbrook situation, Reaves became a stabilizing force off the bench and eventually the secondary ball-handler to LeBron James. He started to be viewed as a long-term starter. In his third year, his playmaking ability surprised many, leading to discussions about him becoming a long-term point guard.
Now, in his fourth spring, there`s renewed excitement about Reaves` ceiling. Since LeBron James`s injury against Boston, Reaves is averaging 26.5 points and 6.5 assists per game. Throughout the season, he has excelled with the ball in his hands. Lineups featuring Reaves without James or Luka Dončić rank in the 88th percentile for offensive efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass. The question now is whether the Lakers have an All-Star caliber player in Reaves.
The Lakers have certainly treated him like one. He has been excluded from nearly every major trade discussion since his arrival. When JJ Redick wanted to motivate the team before a crucial game against Memphis, he arranged a meeting with James, Dončić, and Reaves. While not yet on the same level as those superstars, the Lakers consider Reaves a peer to their icons. As James approaches retirement, it`s increasingly likely the Lakers will keep Reaves as Dončić`s primary partner rather than trading him for another star, as has been their usual strategy.
Reaves definitely benefits from playing with these star teammates. Unlike Quentin Grimes, Reaves`s assisted field goal rate has actually decreased in his fourth year as he`s adapted to Dončić`s presence. His success with catch-and-shoot threes has made him a good fit alongside Dončić. However, to become a true co-star, he needs to combine his catch-and-shoot ability with the pull-up three-pointers that Dončić consistently makes. He only started attempting pull-up threes last year, and his accuracy has been inconsistent this season, especially during his March surge, where he`s shooting below 28% on them. Given his consistent improvement throughout his career, it`s conceivable he will refine his pull-up three-pointer in the next year or two.
Mastering the pull-up three is the next crucial step for Reaves to maximize his driving ability. He needs to stretch defenses to compensate for his athletic limitations. While he`s excellent at creating space horizontally and drawing fouls, he lacks elite first-step quickness. Pull-up threes will be essential. Once he develops this, he will be a highly skilled finisher with excellent court vision and instincts. In the near future, he will continue to exploit mismatches against less capable defenders after opponents focus their game plans on James and Dončić. However, March is demonstrating his ability to excel independently. He has consistently exceeded expectations throughout his four years with the Lakers, so his recent strong performance in March should not be a surprise.
