NBA Teams Strategically Losing for Draft Picks: The Key Players

As the regular NBA season nears its end, two competitions are unfolding simultaneously. One is the battle for playoff positioning, where teams vie for conference spots, especially the top six ensuring direct playoff entry. The other is the race to the bottom, as several teams are intentionally losing to improve their chances in the NBA Draft lottery and the opportunity to draft Duke prospect Cooper Flagg.

The `tanking race` has different levels. Some teams started after the All-Star break, like San Antonio following Victor Wembanyama`s injury. Others have been consistent throughout the season. Despite San Antonio`s recent efforts, a group of seven teams clearly stands out as the league`s worst.

Teams such as the Jazz and Wizards are familiar with this strategy, having planned for a rebuild for over a year, aiming to secure a foundational player in the 2025 NBA Draft. Other teams, including the Pelicans and 76ers, didn`t initially intend to perform so poorly but have accepted their current situation, hoping to improve next season with young talent, better support, and fewer injuries.

With the Draft Lottery approaching on May 12th, this article examines players on these seven teams who have contributed most to their team`s lottery odds – the `Tank Commanders` – and those who have resisted these tanking efforts.

The methodology used is straightforward: examining each team`s most frequent three-player lineups from NBA.com stats. A player earns a point for each lineup with a net rating of -10.0 or worse and loses a point for lineups with a 1.0 or higher net rating. A -10.0 net rating suggests a lineup contributing to losses, while a positive rating indicates players are performing well despite the team`s tanking goals.

Here are the `Tank Commanders` for the seven NBA teams with the poorest records this season.

Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington (18 Tank Commander points)

The Wizards are in a league of their own in losing, often in dramatic fashion. None of their top 50 three-man lineups have a positive net rating; the best is Poole-Kispert-Coulibaly at -2.2. It`s remarkable organizational consistency. Rookie guard Bub Carrington leads in `Tank Commander` points, alongside seven Wizards who appear in at least 10 lineups with a -10.0 or worse net rating out of just their 50 most used lineups.

Honorable mention: Bilal Coulibaly (16), Jordan Poole (13), Alex Sarr (11), Kyle Kuzma (11), Corey Kispert (10), Jonas Valanciunas (10), Kyshawn George (9)

Resistance award: None

Utah Jazz: Keyonte George (10 points)

The Jazz have recently solidified their position at the bottom of the Western Conference, even incurring a $100,000 fine for resting Lauri Markkanen. Keyonte George is a leading `Tank Commander`. The young guard`s challenging season, along with contributions from Utah`s young core, has placed the Jazz firmly in the bottom three for lottery advantage.

Honorable mention: Walker Kessler (7), Isaiah Collier (7), Cody Williams (6), Kyle Filipowski (5)

Resistance award: John Collins (-5)

Three Jazz players earned negative points: John Collins, Collin Sexton (-3), and Lauri Markkanen (-1). Veteran forward John Collins appears in more positive net rating lineups than any teammate. His ankle sprain recovery is not expected to be rushed.

Charlotte Hornets: Nick Smith Jr. (5)

The Hornets slightly defied the system due to numerous lineup combinations and limited high-minute lineups, making the top 50 lineup analysis less comprehensive. For instance, Utah has used 300 fewer three-man lineups than Charlotte this season. Nick Smith Jr. leads in points, but Charlotte`s vast array of lineups and player rotations explain their third-worst record.

Honorable mention: Tidjane Salaun (3), Josh Green (3)

Resistance award: Cody Martin and LaMelo Ball (-7)

Cody Martin`s trade to Phoenix might be linked to his positive lineup impact. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller (-6) also featured in many positive lineups before injuries. Charlotte`s optimism stems from solid player combinations when their key players are healthy.

New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (12 points)

As with other teams, a young player in a significant role tops the list. For New Orleans, it`s rookie center Yves Missi, playing extensive minutes due to team injuries. This isn`t necessarily a criticism of Missi or others on this list, but it highlights the difficulty for young players to drive winning, especially in unstable team environments.

Honorable mention: Jordan Hawkins (7), Javonte Green (6), Trey Murphy III (5)

Resistance award: Zion Williamson and Kelly Olynyk (-1)

Zion Williamson`s impact when healthy is undeniable. However, availability is a recurring issue, and Pelicans fans might be hesitant about relying on his end-of-season performance for future expectations.

Brooklyn Nets: Nic Claxton (15 points)

Brooklyn`s summer trade to regain draft picks from Houston clearly signaled their season strategy. While initially overperforming, they shifted focus towards draft positioning, aiming for a top lottery pick and a chance at Flagg. Nic Claxton features in most of Brooklyn’s poorest lineups, partly because the Nets went 5-4 in games he missed.

Honorable mention: Ziaire Williams (8), Keon Johnson (8), Jalen Wilson (7), Noah Clowney (5)

Resistance award: Dennis Schröder (-4)

Dennis Schröder was instrumental in Brooklyn`s surprisingly strong start. Despite being traded after 23 games for playing too effectively, he leads the Nets` `resistance` leaderboard, followed by Day`Ron Sharpe (-2) and Cam Thomas (-1).

Philadelphia 76ers: Andre Drummond (5 points)

Similar to Charlotte, the Sixers` situation is more about attrition than specific players driving losses. Unsurprisingly, a team designed around Joel Embiid struggles with Andre Drummond in the lineup.

Honorable mention: Quentin Grimes (3), Justin Edwards (2), Tyrese Maxey (2)

Resistance award: Guerschon Yabusele (-8)

Guerschon Yabusele has been part of Philadelphia`s successful lineups this season. He emerged as a positive element in this analysis, perhaps suggesting Philly should build around him.

Toronto Raptors (24-47): Jonathan Mogbo (5 points)

The Raptors haven`t been as overtly `tanking` as some teams, losing often but remaining competitive. This results in fewer extremely poor or exceptionally good lineups, consistent with a team not intentionally aiming for the worst record but making a significant trade for an inactive player. Depth issues are evident in this analysis. Jonathan Mogbo edged out RJ Barrett and Jamal Shead as `Tank Commander`, with bench players dominating their worst lineups.

Honorable mention: RJ Barret (4), Jamal Shead (4), Gradey Dick (2), Ochai Agbaji (2)

Resistance award: Davion Mitchell and Ja`Kobe Walter (-3)

Ja`Kobe Walter has performed well in lineups with Scottie Barnes, while Davion Mitchell has contributed to solid lineups and avoided being in the worst performing groups.