Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch has confirmed Stuart Skinner will start Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, even after a difficult Game 3 where he allowed five goals on just 23 shots. Although Skinner has faced challenges during the series, the decision to keep him in net for the next game appears to be the correct strategic move.
Skinner was replaced for the final 16:33 of Game 3, a dominant 6-1 victory for the Florida Panthers, after conceding his fifth goal. The goal that led to his pulling was a power-play marker by Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad, resulting from a well-executed offensive sequence.
While many of the goals conceded in Game 3 were not solely Skinner`s responsibility, his recent performance statistics are concerning. Across his last four appearances, his save percentage is .860, and he has allowed 2.86 goals above expected, according to Natural Stat Trick data.
Coach Knoblauch admitted to considering his options for Game 4 when questioned on Wednesday. However, he ultimately decided to stick with Skinner rather than turning to backup Calvin Pickard. Despite the temptation to make a change when trailing 2-1 in the series, Skinner`s overall playoff performance suggests he deserves another opportunity.
A key factor in this decision is that, throughout the playoffs, Skinner has generally outperformed Pickard, even with his occasional struggles.
| Stuart Skinner | Calvin Pickard | |
|---|---|---|
| Save percentage | .894 | .888 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.87 |
| GSAA | -1.17 | -1.69 |
Neither goalie`s stats are comparable to legendary netminders like Patrick Roy or Dominik Hasek, but Skinner holds a slight statistical advantage. Considering his very challenging start to the playoffs, his ability to improve his performance closer to league average is noteworthy.
Skinner regained the starting position after an injury to Pickard earlier in the playoffs and performed exceptionally well. Over a seven-game stretch, from Game 4 of the second round through the conclusion of the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars, Skinner was outstanding.
During this strong period, he achieved an impressive .944 save percentage and saved 6.69 goals above expected, compiling a 6-1 record. Skinner`s strong play was instrumental in the Oilers advancing past formidable Western Conference opponents like the Golden Knights and Stars.
Furthermore, relying on Pickard in this crucial situation carries its own risks. At age 33, Pickard has moved between teams frequently during his career, playing only 175 regular-season and eight playoff games. His consistency has been questioned, making the decision to start him in a critical Game 4 potentially riskier than sticking with Skinner.
If Skinner struggles early in Game 4, Coach Knoblauch retains the flexibility to replace him with Pickard. However, if Pickard were to start and perform poorly, bringing Skinner in cold, knowing he was the backup choice, could be detrimental to Skinner`s confidence and ability to lead a potential comeback with no room for error.
Considering all factors, starting Skinner in Game 4 is the most logical decision for Knoblauch. The poor outcome in Game 3 was a collective team failure, not solely on the goaltender, and Pickard`s performance hasn`t been flawless either. Giving Skinner the chance to rebound, as he has successfully done previously in these playoffs, makes strategic sense.
