Stanley Cup Playoffs 2025: First Round Series Predictions

The matchups for the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs are set, with 16 teams competing for hockey`s top honor. Only half will advance beyond this initial stage. Here are predictions for which teams will continue their quest for the Stanley Cup.

In the Eastern Conference, the current Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, are strong contenders to win again. However, they face a challenging series against their rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning. While Florida defeated Tampa on their path to the Cup last year, the Lightning have strengthened their team for this playoff rematch.

Another intense rivalry will see the favored Toronto Maple Leafs play against the Ottawa Senators in the Battle of Ontario. This marks the first postseason encounter between these two Canadian teams in 21 years.

In the Western Conference, a major showdown is set between the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars, guaranteeing that one of these strong contenders will exit in the first round. Dallas has reached the conference finals for the past two years, but returning for a third time will be difficult.

For the fourth consecutive year, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers will face each other in the first round. The Kings have lost the previous three series, but 2025 presents a chance to change that.

Here are expert predictions for each first-round series before the 2025 NHL playoffs begin.

Eastern Conference

Capitals vs. Canadiens

Series odds: Capitals -275, Canadiens +220 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: Both teams enter the playoffs with positive momentum. The Capitals have had a successful season, achieving 51 wins, highlighted by Alex Ovechkin potentially breaking Wayne Gretzky`s scoring record. The Canadiens, a team focused on rebuilding, saw their young players perform exceptionally well, helping them secure the final playoff spot.

I believe both teams are somewhat fortunate to be in their current positions. While the Capitals have performed well, their overall performance might not indicate a true Stanley Cup contender. The Canadiens struggle as a five-on-five team and have a negative goal difference. In this series, I favor the Capitals` experience, depth, and defense over Montreal. The Canadiens might win a couple of games at home, but ultimately, Pick — Capitals def. Canadiens 4-2

Bengel: Although the Capitals may have exceeded expectations during the regular season, the Canadiens are not a strong offensive team, averaging fewer than 3 goals per game. I doubt they have enough offensive power to match the Capitals. The Canadiens might win a home game due to their goalie Sam Montembeault`s ability, but that`s likely it. Even with uncertainty around Capitals` goalie Logan Thompson`s condition, it would take a significant downturn for the Capitals to lose. Pick — Capitals def. Canadiens 4-2

Hurricanes vs. Devils

Series odds: Hurricanes -280, Devils +225

Nivison: The absence of Jack Hughes significantly weakens the Devils in this series. Since Hughes` season-ending injury, New Jersey`s performance metrics have declined, especially compared to the Hurricanes, a top five-on-five team. New Jersey`s strong power play could be a factor, but Carolina`s top penalty kill unit will challenge that.

However, the Hurricanes also have weaknesses. They lack elite scorers, especially after losing Martin Necas and Mikko Rantanen. Goaltending is also uncertain for Carolina, with Frederik Andersen`s injury history and Pyotr Kochetkov`s inconsistency. Jacob Markstrom of the Devils could steal some games, but New Jersey faces an uphill battle. Pick — Hurricanes def. Devils 4-2

Bengel: While the Devils` offense is weaker without Hughes, the Hurricanes` scoring depth isn`t exceptional after trading Mikko Rantanen. Carolina scored a lot at five-on-five, but they will rely heavily on Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis in the playoffs. Coupled with inconsistent goaltending from Andersen and Kochetkov, it`s not ideal for the Hurricanes. Despite expecting a low-scoring series, the Hurricanes are still likely to win. Pick — Hurricanes def. Devils 4-1

Maple Leafs vs. Senators

Series odds: Maple Leafs -192, Senators +158

Nivison: If playoff success depends on star power, the Maple Leafs should be the clear choice. While Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Jake Sanderson are strong players for the Senators, they don`t match the level of Toronto`s core players: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. Toronto also has Matthew Knies, who had a breakout season. Toronto`s top players give them an advantage.

However, Toronto`s overall performance metrics are average. They haven`t been a dominant five-on-five team in terms of scoring chances. In fact, the Senators have been slightly better in some areas statistically. The key difference might be scoring efficiency. Toronto has scored more goals (263) compared to the Senators (235). Additionally, the Maple Leafs` improved defense will make it harder for Ottawa. Pick — Maple Leafs def. Senators 4-2

Bengel: The Maple Leafs are known for strong regular seasons followed by early playoff exits. This year could be different. Toronto has significantly more talent, especially offensively with Matthews and Nylander. Despite not always being elite at five-on-five, their goal difference is much better than the Senators. Their goalie duo has also been reliable.

The Senators` young stars lack playoff experience. While experience isn`t everything, the Maple Leafs have been through playoff series before. Both teams are good on power play and similar on penalty kill. This series could be exciting, but it`s unlikely Matthews and the Maple Leafs will be eliminated in the first round. Pick — Maple Leafs def. Senators 4-2

Lightning vs. Panthers

Series odds: Panthers -118, Lightning -102

Nivison: For the fourth time in five years, we`ll see the Battle of Florida in the playoffs. The Panthers overcame the Lightning last season and enter as reigning champions. They`ll need that experience against a Tampa team aiming for another Cup, led by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Recently, the Lightning have been improving, while the Panthers have been less consistent.

Florida`s inconsistency is partly due to Matthew Tkachuk`s absence. Even if he returns for Game 1, his effectiveness is uncertain. Also, Aaron Ekblad is suspended for the first two games. Can Tkachuk and Ekblad perform well immediately upon returning? They need to because there`s no time to adjust in a short series. I expect a close series, but I`m picking the team that`s been playing better recently. Pick — Lightning def. Panthers 4-3

Bengel: The Florida series is highly anticipated. It`s unusual for a Stanley Cup champion to be the underdog in the first round, but that`s the situation for the Panthers.

The main question is Matthew Tkachuk`s availability. He`s been injured and might not be at full strength even if he plays. He`s crucial to Florida`s success. The Lightning, however, are performing very well and might be the top team in the East. Nikita Kucherov led the league in points, and Jake Guentzel has been a strong addition to the Lightning. I believe the Panthers are too injured, and it`s hard to bet against the Lightning`s current form. Pick — Lightning def. Panthers 4-3

Western Conference

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues

Series odds: Jets -225, Blues +184

Nivison: The Jets were consistently a top team in the Central Division. However, this series against a wild card team is not straightforward. The Blues have been one of the hottest teams for months, making a strong playoff push. Their coach, Jim Montgomery, transformed them into a strong defensive team.

The Blues` defense will be tested against a Jets team that scored a lot of goals. Winnipeg`s scoring is led by Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, and they also have one of the best goalies, Connor Hellebuyck. With Hellebuyck and the Blues` strong defense, this should be a low-scoring series. In close series, luck can play a big role, potentially leading to an upset. Pick — Blues def. Jets 4-3

Bengel: The Jets won the Presidents` Trophy for most points in the regular season. However, Presidents` Trophy winners often don`t win the Stanley Cup. Jets` goalie Connor Hellebuyck needs to perform well in the playoffs, coming off a great regular season.

The Blues enter the playoffs as one of the hottest teams, winning many of their final games. They have strong offensive players like Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, but their forward depth might be a problem against the Jets` strong defense. While Winnipeg will miss Nikolaj Ehlers, I still expect them to score enough. It will be a tough series, but the Jets should avoid an upset. Pick — Jets def. Blues 4-3

Stars vs. Avalanche

Series odds: Avalanche -170, Stars +140

Nivison: This is the most anticipated first-round series, featuring two Stanley Cup contenders. The stakes are high for both teams. The Stars were more consistent during the season, but Colorado`s recent moves make them strong contenders for another Cup.

The Stars have unmatched forward depth, with many 20-goal scorers. However, their defense is weaker, especially without Miro Heiskanen. Their defense has struggled to prevent scoring chances recently, which is a concern against the Avalanche`s strong offense led by Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas. In a high-scoring series, the Stars might not be able to outscore their defensive issues. Pick — Avalanche def. Stars 4-2

Bengel: This series will be exciting. It`s unfortunate that one of these strong teams will be eliminated early. The Stars made significant additions, like Mikko Rantanen, enhancing their forward depth. However, missing Miro Heiskanen on defense is a major issue against the Avalanche`s offense.

The Avalanche, despite losing Rantanen, added Martin Necas and Brock Nelson. If any team can match Dallas`s offense, it`s Colorado, led by MacKinnon and Makar. Secondary scoring could be key. Artturi Lehkonen was important in Colorado`s 2022 Cup win, and Valeri Nichushkin has been playing well. This series will likely have many goals and be close, but I`m picking the more battle-tested team. Pick — Avalanche def. Stars 4-2

Golden Knights vs. Wild

Series odds: Golden Knights -235, Wild +190

Nivison: The Wild are hard to evaluate due to injuries throughout the season. Early on, they looked strong when healthy, but haven`t maintained that level. Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek are back, giving them a chance, but they lack the overall talent and depth of the Golden Knights.

The Golden Knights look like Stanley Cup contenders again, with Jack Eichel`s strong season and a deep team. While their penalty kill is weak, their power play is among the best. While Wild`s goalie Filip Gustavsson could outperform Adin Hill and cause an upset, Vegas is generally deeper and more skilled. Pick — Golden Knights def. Wild 4-1

Bengel: The Wild have good offensive players like Kaprizov, Boldy, and Eriksson Ek. However, they ranked low in scoring this season. Even fully healthy, Minnesota might be outmatched in this series.

The Golden Knights had a smoother path to the playoffs this year compared to last season. Jack Eichel had a career year, and Vegas has strong forward depth. They score a lot of goals and will challenge Wild`s goalie Gustavsson. The Golden Knights are likely set for a deep playoff run and should win this first-round series easily. Pick — Golden Knights def. Wild 4-1

Kings vs. Oilers

Series odds: Oilers -132, Kings +110

Nivison: For the fourth year in a row, these rivals meet in the first round. The Oilers have won the previous three, but could this be the Kings` year? Possibly. Los Angeles has a better chance now, but the Oilers still have key advantages.

The Kings` past weakness was offense, but that`s less of a concern now. They`ve been scoring more recently. Also, Oilers` defenseman Mattias Ekholm is injured for the first round, and their goaltending hasn`t been great. However, the Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who are hard to bet against. They can change a series. Still, the Kings look like the better team entering this series. Pick — Kings def. Oilers 4-3

Bengel: The Kings and Oilers are facing off in the first round again. The Oilers have won the last three playoff series, but this could be the Kings` best chance to win.

The Kings have been scoring well this season, including recent high-scoring games. While they lack players like McDavid or Draisaitl, Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are strong scorers. Kings` goalie Darcy Kuemper has been playing well. The absence of Oilers` defenseman Mattias Ekholm and their inconsistent goaltending could be key factors. The Kings have a good chance to win this series. Pick — Kings def. Oilers 4-3