Few expected the Indiana Pacers to return home holding a 2-0 series lead over the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, but the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has certainly delivered many surprises. However, given how well road teams have performed recently, Indiana might face a challenge at home in the crucial Game 3. Elsewhere, the Oklahoma City Thunder bounced back from their Game 1 loss with a dominant 43-point victory against the Nuggets in Game 2. The series is now tied 1-1 as they head back to Denver. Notably, Nikola Jokic, who averaged a triple-double in the regular season and the first round, has not achieved one in the first two games against the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has consistently scored at least 33 points in both games against the Thunder this series. His total points over/under is set at 32.5. Considering these factors, what are the best approaches for Friday`s NBA prop picks?
A leading projection model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has a strong track record on top-rated NBA picks, has analyzed the simulation results. A Data Scientist behind the model, Stephen Oh, has broken down the supporting evidence to highlight which player props offer the best value for today`s slate. Keep in mind that NBA odds can fluctuate, so acting quickly can maximize value.
Evan Mobley Over 2.5 assists (-105)
The model projects Mobley for 2.9 assists, aligning closely with his season average of 3.1 assists per game. Getting these odds at less than the standard -110 presents value according to Oh. Mobley`s status is questionable due to an ankle injury that caused him to miss Game 2. However, given the critical importance of avoiding a 3-0 deficit, Oh anticipates Mobley will make every effort to play. The injury could potentially limit his mobility and scoring aggression, which might, counterintuitively, increase his assist opportunities.
Oh notes, “This line is set low because his average this season is significantly lower on the road (2.7) than at home (3.4), and his Over rate is just 47.4% away compared to 68.4% at home. But I see a player who is `due,` coming off a stretch of 5 straight Unders, prior to which he hit the Over in seven consecutive games and in 16 of 21 games dating back to late February.”
Andrew Nembhard Under 22.5 points + assists + rebounds (-110)
Nembhard surpassed this total in the first two games of the series, but the Pacers also significantly exceeded expectations in both contests. Indiana`s 2-0 lead heading home is genuinely surprising, and Nembhard`s performance has been a key contributor. However, Cleveland`s 64-18 regular-season record indicates their underlying strength, and the model forecasts a stronger showing from the Cavaliers in Game 3.
Nembhard has gone Under his total PRA in four of his last five home games when the Pacers were underdogs, averaging a PRA of 16.4 in those contests. He also finished below this total in his final two regular-season games against Cleveland and never recorded a PRA total higher than 25 across their four regular-season matchups.
Christian Braun Over 1.5 blocks + steals (+100)
Although Braun has not hit this number in his last four games, Oh sees this as a potential buy-low opportunity with attractive plus-money odds, rather than a worrying long-term trend. Braun achieved the Over on this total in four of his first five playoff games before this recent Under streak. He averaged 1.6 blocks + steals during the regular season. Braun had a less impactful Game 2, playing only 26 minutes in a lopsided game. However, having played 40 minutes in Game 1 and at least 37 minutes in seven of nine postseason games prior to Game 2, Oh expects a more complete performance on Friday as Denver returns to their home court for Game 3.
Oh commented, “It`s human (or referee) nature to allow home teams with championship pedigree a bit more defensive aggressiveness that might be called fouls in the regular season. The Celtics seemed to get away with a lot in Game 2 against the Knicks, and that kind of home-court leniency should help Braun potentially turn a few defensive plays into steals and blocks rather than fouls, especially early in the game.”
