With the 2025 NBA playoffs just around the corner, teams are sharpening their game for the postseason. The Golden State Warriors, boosted by Jimmy Butler, are in a strong position to escape the play-in tournament, currently tied for sixth place in the NBA standings with the Los Angeles Clippers. Butler`s addition has been transformative for Golden State, who boast a 17-4 record in games he has played. DraftKings Sportsbook has set Butler`s over/under for points at 18.5. The question is, which side of this bet offers the best value, and how can bettors leverage NBA parlays, player props, and SGPs for an advantage?
SportsLine`s projection model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has impressively returned over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated NBA picks over the last six seasons. Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), a data scientist behind this model, has analyzed these simulations to pinpoint player props with exceptional value.
Karl-Anthony Towns: Over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125 DraftKings)
Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging exactly 40.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists this season, and has exceeded this mark in two of his last three games. The All-Star center recently achieved a triple-double against the Mavericks with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists, followed by a performance against the Clippers with 34 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assists.
The model indicates that Towns performs even better against teams similar to the Trail Blazers, having surpassed his points + rebounds + assists (PAR) in eight of his last 10 games against teams with losing records and middle-tier defenses. It predicts he will average 47.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
Jalen Green: Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114 FanDuel)
Jalen Green, instrumental to the Rockets` strong position in the West, is nearing superstardom, leading his team with 21.5 points per game. He also averages 4.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists, numbers he has consistently exceeded recently due to his high scoring.
However, the Suns` defense has been strong at home, holding three of their last five opponents under 45% shooting. Green has sometimes struggled on the road, going under his PAR in three of his last five road games and shooting just 37.6% in his last seven away games. The model projects him to finish with an average of 27.7 PAR.
R.J. Barrett: Over 16.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)
Since joining Toronto, R.J. Barrett has averaged 21.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game, making his current points total seem surprisingly low. This is likely due to his lack of 20-point games since March 8 due to an ankle injury. However, he is expected to return to the lineup after resting against the Hornets.
The 76ers` defense ranks 26th in the NBA (118.3 defensive rating) and has conceded an average of 126.6 points per game during their current seven-game losing streak. This is a key reason why the model predicts Barrett will comfortably exceed his points prop, projecting an average of 22.9 points.
Miles Bridges: Over 7.5 Rebounds (+124 DraftKings)
Miles Bridges is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game this season, making the over on 7.5 rebounds an attractive bet at plus money. He has exceeded his rebounds prop in four of his last five games and has recorded 29 games with eight or more rebounds out of 58 played this season. Meanwhile, the Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA (72.1%), leading the model to predict Bridges will average 8.8 rebounds on Sunday.
Ron Holland: Under 2.5 Rebounds (+120 FanDuel)
Despite being a low number, betting under 2.5 rebounds for Ron Holland offers good value with plus money odds. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft averages 2.7 rebounds per game but has only played over 20 minutes once this month as the Pistons compete in the East. Holland has recorded two or fewer rebounds in 8 of 14 games this month and has stayed under three rebounds in 37 of 74 games overall.
