Friday`s NBA schedule is packed with seven exciting games. Notably, both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are underperforming compared to preseason expectations. The Suns are struggling to secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament, while the Timberwolves are currently the eighth seed, aiming to climb into the top six to avoid the Play-In games.
The Timberwolves, favored by 6.5 points with an over/under of 226.5, have a relatively healthy roster. This means their star players, including Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert, could be prime candidates for player prop bets on various betting platforms. Anthony Edwards, for instance, previously scored 44 points against the Suns on March 2nd and currently has odds of +680 on FanDuel Sportsbook to repeat a 40-point performance this Friday.
SportsLine`s Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has impressively generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors following its top-rated NBA picks over the last six seasons. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind this model, has analyzed these simulations and supporting data to identify player props with significant value for the upcoming games. Remember that odds are subject to change, so it`s advisable to act quickly to secure the best value.
Nikola Jokic: Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks
The recommended bet is on Nikola Jokic to exceed 2.5 steals and blocks at odds of +120. Jokic has surpassed this mark in two of his last three games, and a game against the Utah Jazz presents favorable conditions for this trend to continue. The Jazz are the most blocked team in the league, averaging 6.3 blocks against per game, and they also lead the league in turnovers with 16.8 per game. In their previous encounter on January 30th, Jokic recorded four steals. Stephen Oh points out that Denver being heavily favored by 17.5 points further increases the likelihood of Jokic hitting the over. Bet365 currently offers the best odds for this prop at +120.
Oh from SportsLine commented, “Likely blowouts don`t negatively impact Jokic`s Over performance on this prop. In fact, over the past few seasons when playing as a favorite of -11.5 points or more, Jokic has exceeded this combined steals + blocks number in 14 out of 19 games.”
Kevin Durant: Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks
The model projects Kevin Durant to achieve 1.8 steals + blocks on Friday, making the even money odds for over 1.5 steals + blocks very appealing. Although Durant has been under this threshold in five of his last six games, he has exceeded it in six of his last nine games against the Timberwolves, averaging 2.3 combined steals + blocks during that stretch. The 15-time All-Star is averaging 2.1 steals + blocks this season, and Oh believes there`s value in Durant returning to his usual performance level against the Timberwolves. While other betting platforms offer less favorable odds, Bet365 provides the best odds at +100 for this bet.
Oh explained, “Durant hasn`t recorded any steals in his last four games, but this can often be attributed to random chance. Looking at his game log, a four-game steal drought is already his longest in recent memory, suggesting he is due for a breakout tonight.”
Stephen Curry: Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks
Stephen Curry, who has been sidelined for the past two games due to a pelvic contusion, is considered questionable but leaning towards returning this Friday, according to coach Steve Kerr. With the Warriors losing their last two games without him and dropping to seventh place in the Western Conference, they urgently need Curry back. Curry tallied three steals in his last game against the Nuggets on Monday. The Warriors will be facing the Pelicans, who rank 18th in the league in turnovers per game (14.1).
Oh stated, “After a two-game absence, Curry is likely to return, and considering the Warriors` recent poor performances, I anticipate he will not only play but also play his usual minutes. Based on these assumptions, our projections indicate Curry will get 1.6 steals + blocks, making the plus-money odds on the Over very valuable, especially as it`s below his projected and average output.”
Tim Hardaway Jr.: Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Cade Cunningham`s continued absence due to a calf injury for the Pistons presents another significant opportunity for Tim Hardaway Jr. The veteran small forward recorded 12 points, two rebounds, and four assists in the previous game without Cunningham. He has exceeded this combined total in four of his last five games when Cunningham is out. The model projects Hardaway Jr. to achieve 17.1 PRA (points, rebounds, assists), indicating strong value in taking this bet early. BetMGM currently offers the best odds at -105.
Oh highlighted, “Hardaway Jr. has gone over this number in 73.5% of home games without Cunningham, averaging 15.3 PRA. Without Cunningham, this game should statistically be better than average for him. I expect this line to move quickly, and I would recommend taking it up to 14.5, and definitely at 13.5.”
Scottie Barnes: Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The model predicts Scottie Barnes to accumulate 20 points, eight rebounds, and six assists, comfortably exceeding this combined total. This increased projection is largely due to the absence of RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, and Ochai Agbaji, placing more responsibility on Barnes. He has surpassed this mark in three of his last four games and is averaging 33.3 PRA this season, exceeding 29.5 in 70.7% of his games (41-17) leading up to the game against the Charlotte Hornets. While some sportsbooks have already increased this line to 30.5, DraftKings Sportsbook is still offering it at 29.5.
Oh commented on the matchup, “Charlotte`s defense is an ideal matchup for Barnes to perform well, as the Hornets allow a high 56% shooting percentage on two-point shots. Additionally, six of Charlotte`s last eight opponents have shot at least 39% from three-point range. Charlotte has also been outrebounded by double digits in two of their last three games, while Toronto has dominated the boards in their last two games (+20, +12).”
Looking for more NBA picks for tonight`s games? Access NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
