The Oklahoma City Thunder, known for their league-leading defense for much of the season, will put their defensive prowess to the test against the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. In their previous encounter in December, the Thunder defeated the Pacers 120-114 on Indiana`s home court, notably limiting Pacers` star Tyrese Haliburton to just four points. Haliburton`s over/under for points in Saturday`s game is set at 17.5. Interestingly, he has recorded at least 10 assists in 12 of his last 13 games, yet his assist total is projected at 9.5. Is betting on his assists one of the worthwhile NBA player props for Saturday night?
An advanced sports prediction model, which has shown significant success over the past six seasons, has simulated each NBA game 10,000 times. Stephen Oh, a data scientist involved in this model, has analyzed these simulations to pinpoint the player props offering the most value.
Ja Morant Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
In a surprising move, the Grizzlies recently replaced head coach Taylor Jenkins with interim coach Tuomas Iisalo with only nine games left in the regular season. Ja Morant has been sidelined for the last six games due to a hamstring strain, but there`s a strong possibility he`ll return for this crucial game against the Lakers. With the Grizzlies and Lakers neck-and-neck for fourth place in the Western Conference, the prediction model anticipates Morant will perform strongly for Memphis on Saturday night.
According to Oh, the model projects Morant at 34.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined, slightly above his average of 33.8. He has exceeded 29.5 in this combined stat in 31 out of 43 games (72.1%).
Josh Giddey Under 23.5 Points (-140)
Josh Giddey recently made headlines with a game-winning 46.5-foot buzzer-beater against the Lakers. Over his last 10 games, the young player has accumulated 220 points, 96 rebounds, and 100 assists, joining a select group of eight players in NBA history to achieve these numbers. However, this impressive run might have inflated his prop totals. The model projects Giddey to score 21.2 points on Saturday.
Oh suggests that even high-performing players like Giddey are due for an off night, and there might be an emotional dip after their thrilling win against the Lakers.
Jordan Poole Over 15.5 Points (-120)
Jordan Poole has consistently scored 18 or more points in his last five games, and the model predicts this trend will continue on Saturday. Oh points out that Washington might be showcasing Poole as a potential trade asset, contributing to the model`s projection of 18.5 points for him against Brooklyn. Poole has surpassed 15.5 points in 23 of 30 home games and in 71.4% of his games overall this season.
Oh commented that as long as Washington maintains their current approach, Poole is expected to score at least 16 points, even if it requires a high number of field goal attempts.
Luka Doncic Under 30.5 Points (-115)
Luka Doncic has been a high scorer, netting at least 31 points in four of his last five games, often just exceeding the point total. However, he hasn`t scored more than 34 points since March 13, and in his recent game against Chicago, he scored 25 points. Additionally, LeBron James`s absence for five games before his return might have provided Doncic with more scoring opportunities. The model predicts Doncic will score 28.6 points against the Grizzlies on Saturday, suggesting betting on the Under.
Luguentz Dort Over 9.5 Points (-110)
Luguentz Dort has reached double figures in scoring in four of his last six games, and he has consistently scored at least seven points since March 9. He scored 13 points against the Kings and followed up with nine against Memphis. Dort is averaging 9.9 points per game this season and has exceeded his points prop in 15 of 25 home games against teams with winning records. The model projects him to score 12.6 points, indicating a comfortable margin over his current prop total.
