Monday`s NBA schedule is packed with eight games, including a clash between the league`s fastest and slowest teams. The Memphis Grizzlies, known for their fast pace, will host the reigning champion Boston Celtics (-5, 236.5). Boston is ranked 27th in pace, making the pace of the game a key factor in determining the winner and significantly impacting NBA player props. How should this difference in style influence your NBA prop betting strategy? Ja Morant scored 32 points against the Celtics in their previous game on December 7th and has odds of +255 on betting sites to score 30+ points again on Monday.
SportsLine`s projection model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has provided significant returns for bettors over the past six seasons. Stephen Oh, a data scientist behind this model, has analyzed these simulations to identify player props with the best value for the season. Remember that odds can fluctuate, so it`s wise to act quickly to maximize value.
Josh Giddey Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
This line has already shifted from 34.5 to as high as 36.5 on some sportsbooks early Monday, suggesting it might continue to rise. DraftKings Sportsbook currently offers the best odds for the Over at -105 for 35.5 PRA, making it a potentially quick opportunity. Giddey has exceeded this total in seven of his last eight games. Oh highlights a narrative aspect: Giddey, now with the Bulls, is playing against his former team, the Thunder.
“Our projections anticipate Oklahoma City maintaining their league-leading defense throughout the game,” Oh stated, “but if the game becomes a blowout, there could be increased fourth-quarter scoring, and Chicago might keep Giddey in against his old team.”
Derrick White Over 0.5 Blocks (-160)
The model predicts White will block a shot in 75% of simulations, while the current line suggests a 61.5% probability of it happening, according to Oh. Although White had a period in February with only one block in eight games, Oh points out that excluding this eight-game stretch, White has achieved a block in over 70% of his games. The Celtics guard has recorded at least one block in four of his last six games, including back-to-back games with three blocks in mid-March. BetMGM currently provides the best odds at -160, indicating strong value based on simulations, especially considering White`s season average of one block per game.
“His Over rate last season was nearly 72%, and even this season, removing a 1-7 stretch in February, it would be over 70%,” Oh explained. “With him currently at 7-3 Over, I consider him a 70%+ `blocker` per game and will capitalize on a line that seems adjusted downwards due to a brief eight-game anomaly.”
Alex Sarr Over 1.5 Blocks (+130)
Alex Sarr, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, is coming off a three-block game against the Nets on Saturday and has recorded multiple blocks in four of his last five games. He has played at least 25 minutes in six consecutive games and achieved multiple blocks in seven of the last 11 games where he played 25+ minutes. A home game against the Heat is favorable for his blocks Over, according to Oh. While other betting apps offer plus-money odds on Sarr, DraftKings provides the best value at +130.
“Sarr`s blocks average is notably higher at home (1.8 vs. 1.3 on the road), and his Over percentage is also significantly better at home (57% vs. 42%),” Oh noted. “Centers with a 1.4 to 1.7 block average have averaged two blocks (4-1 Over) at home against Miami, compared to just 0.8 average (1-5 Over) when playing in Miami.”
Keon Johnson Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
The model projects Johnson to exceed his total in points, rebounds, and assists individually, but the best value lies in combining them into a PRA bet. He`s averaging 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists as a starter this season and is expected to remain in the Nets` starting lineup on Monday. Johnson has played at least 27 minutes in five of his last six games, and Oh anticipates another heavy workload on Monday. While other sportsbooks have increased Johnson`s odds to around -120, Bet365 offers the best value at -115.
“I also believe we might be underestimating his minutes,” Oh stated. “When he plays 28 to 32 minutes, the Over hits 19-8, compared to only 5-17 when he plays 20 to 27 minutes.”
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (+180)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope of the Magic had two steals and one block against the Kings on Saturday. Both the model and his season averages suggest value on Monday. The model projects 1.26 steals and 0.5 blocks for Pope against the Clippers, and he averages 1.8 steals + blocks per game this season. The Magic boast the No. 1 scoring defense (105.8 ppg) and are in the top 10 in steals and blocks per game, largely due to Pope`s contributions.
“He is in a favorable `buy low` position after being Under in 8 of his last 10 games, but he just had a two-steal, one-block game while playing only 24 minutes,” Oh mentioned. “His scoring has been low recently with only 8, 0, 3, and 9 points in his last four games, so hopefully, he focuses on defense and steals as his contribution. Despite his recent limited steals + blocks production, the Over is still 22-15 at home this season.”
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You`ve seen the model`s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. For NBA projections for every player prop, visit SportsLine.
