Leon Edwards missed his chance for an immediate title rematch and now really needs a win to stay in the championship conversation.
It’s tough for Edwards, who lost his title after not losing for nine years. He had to work hard to get a title fight with Kamaru Usman, and it seems the UFC isn’t eager to put him back in the title picture against Belal Muhammad or anyone else. Edwards hasn’t been heavily promoted, and a loss at UFC London could put him in a difficult position.
Sean Brady is in a better spot. If he beats Edwards, it would be a great three-fight winning streak. After losing to Muhammad, Brady won against Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns, both former title challengers. Beating a former UFC champion would make him a top contender, though Shavkat Rakhmonov is likely next in line for a title shot when healthy.
The co-main event is similar, with former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz facing rising contender Carlos Ulberg. Again, the experienced fighter is fighting to stay relevant, while the newcomer can make a strong case for a title shot with a win. Ulberg could even get closer to a title shot than anyone else competing on Saturday with a dominant performance.
Surprisingly, Leon Edwards is a slight underdog according to betting odds. Why is this?
Is Edwards, after nearly 30 fights in 14 years, considered past his prime? Did his loss to Belal Muhammad hurt his reputation? Or do people think Sean Brady is just that good?
Brady is a good pick on his own. He was a highly-rated prospect before the UFC and has mostly lived up to that potential, except for the Muhammad fight. In his recent wins, he’s shown his skills: great wrestling, good striking, and athleticism for the welterweight division.
It’s assumed that after seeing Muhammad out-wrestle Edwards for five rounds, bettors expect Brady to do the same. But I’m not so sure. Brady might have some early success, but Edwards isn’t usually as easy to control on the ground as Muhammad made it look. And I doubt Brady can keep up that pace for a full 25 minutes.
Edwards will do enough damage striking and use some wrestling himself to win by decision.
Pick: Edwards
Jan Blachowicz is much more experienced than Carlos Ulberg. He’s fought tougher opponents, is more well-rounded, and still has knockout power. He’s the better fighter.
But he’s also 42 years old.
That’s eight years older than Ulberg, and even in heavier weight classes, age is a factor. Blachowicz is also coming off shoulder surgery, which isn’t ideal.
Still!
Despite these reasons, I’m picking Blachowicz. Ulberg is an exciting pick, but the skill difference is too big for me. Blachowicz was recently competitive against Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira. If that Blachowicz shows up, I don’t see Ulberg winning.
Blachowicz by decision.
Pick: Blachowicz
This fight reminds me of a Simpsons joke.
Kevin Holland is back at welterweight. That’s good!
He’s fighting a grappler. That’s bad.
His opponent, Gunnar Nelson, is 36 and hasn’t fought much lately. That’s good!
Nelson has won his last two fights and usually only loses to top welterweights. That’s bad.
Holland is fighting again quickly after his last bout. I think that’s bad?
Even though dropping to welterweight is the right move for Holland, I’ve lost faith in him making the necessary improvements. Nelson isn’t a top contender and is getting older, but he’s still too good on the ground for Holland. Nelson wins by submission in round two.
Pick: Nelson
Molly McCann was expected to have an easy fight. She was supposed to fight Istela Nunes, who has a poor UFC record, perfect for McCann to beat in front of her home fans. But Nunes is out, and Alexia Thainara is stepping in, which is a tougher matchup.
Thainara’s style isn’t fancy. Her striking is improving, and she takes opponents down. Once on the ground, she’s dangerous.
This is a concern for McCann. She’s good in striking fights, and Thainara might strike at times, but McCann struggles with grappling, which Thainara will exploit. I don’t think McCann can keep this fight standing or get back to her feet if Thainara takes her down.
Thainara is a popular pick this week, and we might be overrating her chances as a UFC newcomer, but I’m picking her to beat McCann by submission.
Pick: Thainara
This lightweight fight could be exciting.
Chris Duncan tends to let the fight come to him. It’s worked well so far because he’s tough and has good timing, letting opponents make mistakes. This fight is good for his style because Jordan Vucenic will likely pressure him early.
The question is whether Duncan can create openings for his own attacks. Vucenic strikes and has good submissions, giving him options to stop Duncan. Duncan will land some shots, but will it be enough against Vucenic’s variety and activity? I doubt it.
Expect a thrilling three-round fight that Vucenic wins by decision.
Pick: Vucenic
Nathaniel Wood versus Morgan Charriere is a great fight to start the main card.
Wood is always in exciting fights. He might not be able to dominate Charriere with grappling, so he’ll likely have to rely on his improving striking. Wood is faster, while Charriere has more power.
Charriere has become someone to watch in the featherweight division. He looked promising after fighting in Cage Warriors and has been an exciting fighter in the UFC, getting bonuses in his first three fights. He’s willing to take damage to land big shots on Wood.
I think this will be another decision, with Charriere winning a close one.
Pick: Charriere
Preliminaries
Jai Herbert def. Chris Padilla
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Felipe dos Santos
Mick Parkin def. Marcin Tybura (10)
Christian Leroy Duncan def. Andrey Pulyaev
Shauna Bannon def. Puja Tomar
Caolan Loughran def. Nathan Fletcher
Guram Kutateladze def. Kaue Fernandes
