Islam Makhachev, the UFC lightweight champion, is waiting to find out who he will fight next. There are four possible opponents who all want a chance to face him.
Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Ilia Topuria, the featherweight champion, have all said they deserve a title shot. But the UFC hasn`t decided yet. While any of them could be argued for, UFC veteran Matt Brown thinks one fighter stands out because of the excitement and scale of the fight he would bring.
“I’d pick Ilia,” Brown said on The Fighter vs. The Writer show. “Islam might not want this fight, and he has reasons not to. But I don’t think any of the other contenders have clearly done enough to be the obvious choice. That`s why there are four of them in the running.”
“Nobody has really impressed so much that you immediately say, `OK, this is the guy who should get the fight.` I say give Ilia the opportunity. Let’s see if it works out for him. If it does, then Ilia becomes an even bigger star.”
Makhachev`s hesitation about fighting Topuria is because he previously fought Alexander Volkanovski, another featherweight champion moving up, and was criticized for beating smaller fighters. Makhachev thinks Topuria should first prove himself at lightweight before getting a title shot right away.
Brown understands why Makhachev might be reluctant to fight another featherweight moving up to 155 pounds. However, he believes the UFC sees big money in a Topuria fight, and that`s hard to ignore.
Brown adds that the other contenders will still be around, but if Topuria loses to anyone else now, the hype for a Makhachev fight would disappear.
“Those other guys aren’t going anywhere,” Brown said about Tsarukyan, Oliveira, and Gaethje. “They can still get title fights later. In the meantime, give Ilia a chance to become – maybe not the biggest star in the sport – but he’d be close if he beats Islam. If he beats Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Islam, he’d be in the conversation for being one of the greatest ever.”
Topuria seems to have momentum, especially after Tsarukyan had to withdraw from a fight against Makhachev in January due to a back injury. UFC CEO Dana White then said Tsarukyan would need another win before getting back in title contention.
Oliveira recently had a strong win against Michael Chandler, but he has lost to both Tsarukyan and Makhachev before.
Gaethje called for a title shot after defeating Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313. But this win only put him back on track after a knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 about a year earlier.
Brown gets why these fighters might be frustrated if Topuria gets a title shot ahead of them. He suggests Oliveira and Gaethje should stay active, while Tsarukyan should wait for his chance or be ready as a backup for the title fight.
“If I were the UFC, I’d say Arman doesn’t necessarily need to fight again right now,” Brown said. “Arman, you’re next in line. You get to fight the winner of Ilia and Islam. But we’ll make Ilia and Islam fight. If Islam wins, it doesn’t hurt his reputation. But if Ilia wins, it creates a huge new star and champion.”
“Arman, just wait your turn. We’ll keep you ready, and if someone gets injured, you can step in. I know Arman has been out for a while, but he needs to heal his back and wait for his opportunity. I don’t think Arman needs to fight someone else in the meantime, even if it keeps him waiting longer than he wants to, but that’s just how it goes sometimes.”
Beyond just popularity, Brown also believes Topuria is a more challenging matchup for Makhachev than Tsarukyan, Oliveira, or Gaethje.
Even though Topuria is moving up in weight, he has serious knockout power, which gives him a chance to beat Makhachev. Brown isn’t sure the other contenders have that same kind of threat.
“Here’s the thing: Arman is a wrestler. He’s probably not going to beat Islam at wrestling,” Brown explained. “I don’t think his striking is good enough to beat Islam standing up either. Ilia will probably be outmatched in wrestling, but he at least has the striking and knockout power. If Islam makes a mistake or gets too confident standing, Ilia has a chance to win. Arman is kind of like a weaker version of Islam.”
“We assume they’d wrestle a lot, and thinking Arman will beat Islam with wrestling is less likely than Ilia beating Islam with striking. However, it’s also more likely that Islam will take down Ilia and dominate him on the ground or submit him. It`s a bit of a toss-up, to be honest.”
Ultimately, Brown argues that Topuria`s star power combined with his knockout ability, which could potentially defeat Makhachev, makes him the best choice for the next title fight.
“Ilia has a certain ‘X factor’ that Arman doesn’t,” Brown said. “That’s why I think he has a better shot.”
