Wimbledon is witnessing an unusual phenomenon this year: a significant number of highly-ranked players are being eliminated in the early rounds. British hopeful Jack Draper, ranked world No. 4, is among the high-profile casualties at the All England Club as seeded players continue to tumble. This raises the question: why is this happening?
Is this just a temporary blip, or will we continue to see top-ranked players exit a Grand Slam that has already produced numerous surprising results? So far, 37 matches have seen seeded players defeated.
In the men`s draw, World No. 3 Alexander Zverev, last year`s semi-finalist and seventh seed Lorenzo Musetti, and former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev all lost in the first round. British No. 1 Jack Draper`s defeat to 2017 finalist Marin Cilic on Thursday was another notable upset.
The women`s tournament has been similarly unpredictable. French Open champion Coco Gauff (second seed), Bad Homburg champion Jessica Pegula (third seed), and last year`s finalist Jasmine Paolini (fourth seed) have all been knocked out.
Most recently, sixth seed Madison Keys was defeated by Laura Siegemund in the third round on Friday afternoon.
Seeded Players Eliminated Early
19 men’s seeds are out of Wimbledon so far:
❌ Zverev (3)
❌ Draper (4)
❌ Musetti (7)
❌ Rune (8)
❌ Medvedev (9)
❌ Cerundolo (16)
❌ Tiafoe (12)
❌ Paul (13)
❌ Humbert (18)
❌ Popyrin (20)
❌ Machac (21)
❌ Lehecka (23)
❌ Tsitsipas (24)
❌ Auger-Aliassime (25)
❌ Shapovalov (27)
❌ Bublik (28)
❌ Michelsen (30)
❌ Griekspoor (31)
❌ Berrettini (32)
In the women’s draw, only Aryna Sabalenka remains among the top five seeds:
1. Aryna Sabalenka ✅
2. Coco Gauff ❌
3. Jessica Pegula ❌
4. Jasmine Paolini ❌
5. Qinwen Zheng ❌
Could factors like the extreme heat, the tennis balls, the short grass-court season, or player fatigue be responsible? Sky Sports commentator Jonathan Overend described the situation as `extraordinary`.
He noted, “Before Draper`s exit, World No. 23 Tomas Machac and World No. 28 Sofia Kenin were already out, bringing the total to 32 seeds eliminated across both men`s and women`s draws. That was precisely half the draw still with a couple of hours remaining in the second round. That is amazing and the statistics show it to be.”
Why are so many good players unseeded?
Marin Cilic, a former Grand Slam champion known for his powerful game and grass-court prowess, played one of his best matches in years to defeat Draper. Similarly, British players Cameron Norrie and Katie Boulter caused upsets by beating 12th seed Frances Tiafoe and ninth seed Paula Badosa, respectively.
Another British player, Sonay Kartal, has also exceeded expectations, defeating 20th seed Jelena Ostapenko on her way to the fourth round.
“There are many possible contributing factors, but no single definitive reason,” explained Overend. “The hot weather and different conditions, particularly early in the week, might have played a role, but most players are accustomed to such temperatures. The heat could have dried out the courts, possibly slowing them down slightly.
“Players often mention the balls, and the quick transition from the French Open is nothing new – in fact, it`s better now with three weeks for preparation compared to just two in the past.”
“There has been much discussion about why so many seeds are out of Wimbledon,” Overend continued, “but I would shift the focus and ask why so many *good* players are *unseeded*? For me, that is the primary reason we`ve lost so many big names.”
“There`s a lot of talent further down the rankings, outside the top 32. We can look for excuses for the top seeds, but the reality is they were defeated by very skilled players who performed exceptionally well on the day.”
Dangerous Unseeded Players (“Floaters”)
Players like World No. 42 Dayana Yastremska and World No. 125 Jan-Lennard Struff possess the technical skill to challenge and defeat the best players on any given day. Overend points out that while rankings reward consistency, they may not fully capture the peak potential of these “dangerous floaters.”
He observed, “You look at Dayana Yastremska, who beat Gauff. I also saw Jan-Lennard Struff beat Felix Auger Aliassime (though not a top seed, still a strong opponent). In players like Yastremska and Struff, you have individuals who, when they`re on form, can absolutely take out seeds. They are genuinely dangerous players, and there are many more like them.”
“In terms of overall quality, the difference in technical ability between many players is quite small,” Overend added. “Rankings reflect good performance, but they primarily reward *consistency* because they are based on a 12-month rolling system where points from many tournaments are accumulated.”
